Leave a Message

Thank you for your message. We will be in touch with you shortly.

What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market

Katie Moe  |  April 15, 2025

Connect with the Market

What a Recession Could Mean for the Housing Market
 

Recession talk is all over the news, and the odds of a recession are rising this year. And that leaves people wondering what would happen to the housing market if we do go into a recession.

Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.

 

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall

Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.

In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):

 

So, if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, don’t assume a recession will lead to a crash in home prices. The data simply doesn’t support that idea. Instead, home prices usually follow whatever trajectory they’re already on. And right now, nationally, home prices are still rising at a more normal pace.

 

Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions

While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):

 

 

So, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.

 

Bottom Line

The answer to the recession question is still unknown, but the odds have gone up. But that doesn’t mean you have to wonder about the impact on the housing market – historical data tells us what usually happens.

When you hear talk about a possible recession, what concerns or questions come to mind about buying or selling a home?

 

 

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Katie Moe and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Katie Moe and Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

Recent Blog Posts

Stay up to date on the latest real estate trends.

Community

Tri-Valley Events: October 2025

Chloe Dertinger  |  October 2, 2025

October has arrived in the Tri-Valley, and while we may get our share of fake fall with warm days lingering, the spirit of the season is undeniably strong. Let’s dive … Read more

Community

Volunteer Opportunities for Breast Cancer Awareness Month Near Pleasanton

Chloe Dertinger  |  October 1, 2025

Volunteering is a meaningful way to make a difference in the fight against this devastating disease. Through volunteering, you become an essential part of a collective… Read more

people being scared at pirates of Emerson, a halloween event in Pleasanton, California, located in the East Bay Area of California

Community

Pirates of Emerson: A Haunted Halloween Event in Pleasanton

Chloe Dertinger  |  September 26, 2025

Experience the thrill of Pirates of Emerson in Pleasanton, CA—four terrifying haunted houses, spooky games, live entertainment, and a Halloween tradition that draws vi… Read more

Community

Discover Pleasanton, CA: A Vibrant Bay Area Community

Katie Moe  |  September 25, 2025

Pleasanton, CA offers a unique blend of historic charm and modern convenience. From award-winning schools and lively downtown events to diverse real estate options, di… Read more

Community

The Best Pumpkin Patches In The East Bay Area

Chloe Dertinger  |  September 15, 2025

Fall is here and East Bay’s top pumpkin patches welcome visitors throughout the entire month of October in preparation for Halloween! Check out our favorites in this a… Read more

Community

Dublin Splatter 2025: Family-Friendly Festival in the Tri-Valley

Chloe Dertinger  |  September 5, 2025

Discover Dublin Splatter 2025 at Emerald Glen Park! Enjoy live multicultural performances, hands-on art activities, local food and drinks, carnival rides, and a specta… Read more

Community

Forkful 2025: Discover Downtown Pleasanton’s Top Restaurants

Chloe Dertinger  |  September 1, 2025

Get ready for a flavor-packed afternoon at Forkful, returning to Downtown Pleasanton on Saturday, September 13, 2025. The participating restaurants for 2025 have just… Read more

Community

Tri-Valley Events - September 2025

Chloe Dertinger  |  September 1, 2025

September is here, and the Tri-Valley region is buzzing with activities and events as the seasons start to change. Whether you're a longtime local or visiting for the … Read more

Selling

7 Questions Home Sellers Should Ask Before Hiring an Agent

Katie Moe  |  August 26, 2025

Too many sellers skip the interview process. Many do not know what makes a great agent great (and a weak agent weak). Your biggest asset deserves better. Use these que… Read more

Let’s Connect

You’ve got questions and we can’t wait to answer them.